Individualized prediction of psychosis in subjects with an at-risk mental state

Early intervention strategies in psychosis would significantly benefit from the identification of reliable prognostic biomarkers. Pattern classification methods have shown the feasibility of an early diagnosis of psychosis onset both in clinical and familial high-risk populations. Here we were interested in replicating our previous classification findings using an independent cohort at clinical high risk for psychosis, drawn from the prospective FePsy (Fruherkennung von Psychosen) study. The same neuroanatomical-based pattern classification pipeline, consisting of a linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) and a Recursive Feature Selection (RFE) achieved 74% accuracy in predicting later onset of psychosis. The discriminative neuroanatomical pattern underlying this finding consisted of many brain areas across all four lobes and the cerebellum. These results provide proof-of-concept that the early diagnosis of psychosis is feasible using neuroanatomical-based pattern recognition

Dysfunctional insular connectivity during reward prediction in patients with first-episode psychosis

Background: Increasing evidence indicates that psychosis is associated with abnormal reward processing. Imaging studies in patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) have revealed reduced activity in diverse brain regions, including the ventral striatum, insula and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), during reward prediction. However, whether these reductions in local brain activity are due to altered connectivity has rarely been explored. Methods: We applied dynamic causal modelling and Bayesian model selection to fMRI data during the Salience Attribution Task to investigate whether patients with FEP showed abnormal modulation of connectivity between the ventral striatum, insula and ACC induced by rewarding cues and whether these changes were related to positive psychotic symptoms and atypical antipsychotic medication. Results: The model including reward-induced modulation of insula-ACC connectivity was the best fitting model in each group. Compared with healthy controls (n = 19), patients with FEP (n = 29) revealed reduced right insula-ACC connectivity. After subdividing patients according to current antipsychotic medication, we found that the reduced insula-ACC connectivity relative to healthy controls was observed only in untreated patients (n = 17), not in patients treated with antipsychotics (n = 12), and that it correlated negatively with unusual thought content in untreated patients with FEP. Limitations: The modest sample size of untreated patients with FEP was a limitation of our study. Conclusion: This study indicates that insula-ACC connectivity during reward prediction is reduced in untreated patients with FEP and related to the formation of positive psychotic symptoms. Our study further suggests that atypical antipsychotics may reverse connectivity between the insula and the ACC during reward prediction

Detecting the Psychosis Prodrome Across High-Risk Populations Using Neuroanatomical Biomarkers

To date, the MRI-based individualized prediction of psychosis has only been demonstrated in single-site studies. It remains unclear if MRI biomarkers generalize across different centers and MR scanners and represent accurate surrogates of the risk for developing this devastating illness. Therefore, we assessed whether a MRI-based prediction system identified patients with a later disease transition among 73 clinically defined high-risk persons recruited at two different early recognition centers. Prognostic performance was measured using cross-validation, independent test validation, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Transition outcomes were correctly predicted in 80% of test cases (sensitivity: 76%, specificity: 85%, positive likelihood ratio: 5.1). Thus, given a 54-month transition risk of 45% across both centers, MRI-based predictors provided a 36%-increase of prognostic certainty. After stratifying individuals into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups using the predictor's decision score, the high- vs low-risk groups had median psychosis-free survival times of 5 vs 51 months and transition rates of 88% vs 8%. The predictor's decision function involved gray matter volume alterations in prefrontal, perisylvian, and subcortical structures. Our results support the existence of a cross-center neuroanatomical signature of emerging psychosis enabling individualized risk staging across different high-risk populations. Supplementary results revealed that (1) potentially confounding between-site differences were effectively mitigated using statistical correction methods, and (2) the detection of the prodromal signature considerably depended on the available sample sizes. These observations pave the way for future multicenter studies, which may ultimately facilitate the neurobiological refinement of risk criteria and personalized preventive therapies based on individualized risk profiling tool

Distinguishing prodromal from first-episode psychosis using neuroanatomical single-subject pattern recognition

BACKGROUND: The at-risk mental state for psychosis (ARMS) and the first episode of psychosis have been associated with structural brain abnormalities that could aid in the individualized early recognition of psychosis. However, it is unknown whether the development of these brain alterations predates the clinical deterioration of at-risk individuals, or alternatively, whether it parallels the transition to psychosis at the single-subject level. METHODS: We evaluated the performance of an magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based classification system in classifying disease stages from at-risk individuals with subsequent transition to psychosis (ARMS-T) and patients with first-episode psychosis (FE). Pairwise and multigroup biomarkers were constructed using the structural MRI data of 22 healthy controls (HC), 16 ARMS-T and 23 FE subjects. The performance of these biomarkers was measured in unseen test cases using repeated nested cross-validation. RESULTS: The classification accuracies in the HC vs FE, HC vs ARMS-T, and ARMS-T vs FE analyses were 86.7%, 80.7%, and 80.0%, respectively. The neuroanatomical decision functions underlying these discriminative results particularly involved the frontotemporal, cingulate, cerebellar, and subcortical brain structures. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that structural brain alterations accumulate at the onset of psychosis and occur even before transition to psychosis allowing for the single-subject differentiation of the prodromal and first-episode stages of the disease. Pattern regression techniques facilitate an accurate prediction of these structural brain dynamics at the early stage of psychosis, potentially allowing for the early recognition of individuals at risk of developing psychosis

Pituitary gland volume in at-risk mental state for psychosis: a longitudinal MRI analysis

Introduction: Pituitary enlargement has been reported in individuals with schizophrenic psychosis or an at-risk mental state for psychosis (ARMS). In a previous study, our group could show pituitary volume increase in first episode and ARMS patients with later transition to psychosis (ARMS-T). However, there are no longitudinal studies on this issue so far. We therefore examined longitudinally whether transition to psychosis would be accompanied by a further increase of pituitary volume in antipsychotic-naive ARMS patients. METHODS: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data were acquired from 23 antipsychotic-naive individuals with an ARMS. Ten subjects developed psychosis (ARMS-T) and 13 did not (ARMS-NT). ARMS-T were re-scanned after the onset of psychosis, and ARMS-NT were re-scanned at the end of the study period. RESULTS: There was no significant difference of the pituitary volume between ARMS-T and ARMS-NT in our sample, and there were no significant pituitary volume changes over time. Discussion Longitudinally, we could not detect any further volumetric changes in the pituitary volume with transition to psychosis. CONCLUSIONS: This, together with the result of our previous study, could indicate that the perceived level of stress in ARMS patients is constantly high from very early onward

Hippocampal volume in subjects at high risk of psychosis: a longitudinal MRI study

The hippocampal formation has been studied extensively in schizophrenic psychoses and alterations in hippocampal anatomy have been consistently reported. Chronic schizophrenia seems to be associated with bilateral hippocampal volume (HV) reduction, while in patients with an at-risk mental state (ARMS) there are contradictory results. This is the first region of interest (ROI) based follow-up MRI study of hippocampal volume comparing ARMS individuals with and without transition to psychosis. The aim was to investigate the timing of HV changes in ARMS in the early phase of psychosis. METHODS: Magnetic resonance imaging data from 18 antipsychotic-naive individuals with an ARMS were collected within the FePsy-clinic for early detection of psychoses. During follow-up 8 subjects transitioned to psychosis (ARMS-T) and 10 did not (ARMS-NT). Subjects were re-scanned after the onset of psychosis or at the end of the follow-up if they did not develop psychosis. RESULTS: Across both groups there was a significant decrease in HV over time (p<0.05). There was no significant difference in progression between ARMS-T and ARMS-NT. Antipsychotic medication at follow up was associated with increased HV (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We found a decrease of HV over time in subjects with an ARMS, independently of clinical outcome. We may speculate that the decrease of HV over time might reflect brain degeneration processes

Sexually dimorphic subcortical brain volumes in emerging psychosis

In schizophrenic psychoses, the normal sexual dimorphism of the brain has been shown to be disrupted or even reversed. Little is known, however, at what time point in emerging psychosis this occurs. We have therefore examined, if these alterations are already present in the at-risk mental state (ARMS) for psychosis and in first episode psychosis (FEP) patients.; Data from 65 ARMS (48 (73.8%) male; age=25.1±6.32) and 50 FEP (37 (74%) male; age=27±6.56) patients were compared to those of 70 healthy controls (HC; 27 (38.6%) male; age=26±4.97). Structural T1-weighted images were acquired using a 3 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner. Linear mixed effects models were used to investigate whether subcortical brain volumes are dependent on sex.; We found men to have larger total brain volumes (p<0.001), and smaller bilateral caudate (p=0.008) and hippocampus volume (p<0.001) than women across all three groups. Older subjects had more GM and WM volume than younger subjects. No significant sex×group interaction was found.; In emerging psychosis there still seem to exist patterns of normal sexual dimorphism in total brain and caudate volume. The only structure affected by reversed sexual dimorphism was the hippocampus, with women showing larger volumes than men even in HC. Thus, we conclude that subcortical volumes may not be primarily affected by disrupted sexual dimorphism in emerging psychosis

Reply to: New Meta- and Mega-analyses of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings in Schizophrenia: Do They Really Increase Our Knowledge About the Nature of the Disease Process?

This work was supported by National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering Grant No. U54EB020403 (to the ENIGMA consortium)

Cortical brain abnormalities in 4474 individuals with schizophrenia and 5098 control subjects via the enhancing neuro Imaging genetics through meta analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium

BACKGROUND: The profile of cortical neuroanatomical abnormalities in schizophrenia is not fully understood, despite hundreds of published structural brain imaging studies. This study presents the first meta-analysis of cortical thickness and surface area abnormalities in schizophrenia conducted by the ENIGMA (Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta Analysis) Schizophrenia Working Group. METHODS: The study included data from 4474 individuals with schizophrenia (mean age, 32.3 years; range, 11-78 years; 66% male) and 5098 healthy volunteers (mean age, 32.8 years; range, 10-87 years; 53% male) assessed with standardized methods at 39 centers worldwide. RESULTS: Compared with healthy volunteers, individuals with schizophrenia have widespread thinner cortex (left/right hemisphere: Cohen's d = -0.530/-0.516) and smaller surface area (left/right hemisphere: Cohen's d = -0.251/-0.254), with the largest effect sizes for both in frontal and temporal lobe regions. Regional group differences in cortical thickness remained significant when statistically controlling for global cortical thickness, suggesting regional specificity. In contrast, effects for cortical surface area appear global. Case-control, negative, cortical thickness effect sizes were two to three times larger in individuals receiving antipsychotic medication relative to unmedicated individuals. Negative correlations between age and bilateral temporal pole thickness were stronger in individuals with schizophrenia than in healthy volunteers. Regional cortical thickness showed significant negative correlations with normalized medication dose, symptom severity, and duration of illness and positive correlations with age at onset. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that the ENIGMA meta-analysis approach can achieve robust findings in clinical neuroscience studies; also, medication effects should be taken into account in future genetic association studies of cortical thickness in schizophrenia

Speech Illusions in People at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Linked to Clinical Outcome

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: Around 20% of people at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis later develop a psychotic disorder, but it is difficult to predict who this will be. We assessed the incidence of hearing speech (termed speech illusions [SIs]) in noise in CHR participants and examined whether this was associated with adverse clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: At baseline, 344 CHR participants and 67 healthy controls were presented with a computerized white noise task and asked whether they heard speech, and whether speech was neutral, affective, or whether they were uncertain about its valence. After 2 years, we assessed whether participants transitioned to psychosis, or remitted from the CHR state, and their functioning. STUDY RESULTS: CHR participants had a lower sensitivity to the task. Logistic regression revealed that a bias towards hearing targets in stimuli was associated with remission status (OR = 0.21, P = 042). Conversely, hearing SIs with uncertain valence at baseline was associated with reduced likelihood of remission (OR = 7.72. P = .007). When we assessed only participants who did not take antipsychotic medication at baseline, the association between hearing SIs with uncertain valence at baseline and remission likelihood remained (OR = 7.61, P = .043) and this variable was additionally associated with a greater likelihood of transition to psychosis (OR = 5.34, P = .029). CONCLUSIONS: In CHR individuals, a tendency to hear speech in noise, and uncertainty about the affective valence of this speech, is associated with adverse outcomes. This task could be used in a battery of cognitive markers to stratify CHR participants according to subsequent outcomes